Hello, Traders!
Most traders believe trading is about being right.
It isn’t.
Trading is about knowing the odds before you ever place a trade — and having a structure that allows those odds to work over time.
Before indicators.
Before entries.
Before market opinions.
The outcome is already biased — either for you or against you — by simple mathematics.
Trading Is a Game of Outcomes, Not Predictions
Remove charts, markets, and emotions for a moment.
Let’s look at outcomes instead.
Imagine a sample of 10 trades.
Scenario One: A Healthy Payoff Structure
• 10 trades
• 6 winning trades
• 4 losing trades
Now the key part:
• Each winner makes 2 units
• Each loser loses 1 unit
The maths:
• Wins: 6 × 2 = 12
• Losses: 4 × 1 = 4
• Net result: +8 units
This is a system that:
• Can survive losing streaks
• Allows the edge time to play out
• Rewards patience
• Protects confidence
Losses are expected — and already accounted for.
This is what a tradable system looks like.
Now Change One Small Thing
Same 10 trades.
Same 6 wins.
Same 4 losses.
But this time:
• Profit target = 1 unit
• Fixed loss = 1 unit
The maths:
• Wins: 6 × 1 = 6
• Losses: 4 × 1 = 4
• Net result: +2 units
Yes — it’s still profitable.
But now the system is fragile.
• One extra losing trade erases progress
• Two extra losses create doubt
• A poor start destroys confidence
The edge still exists —
but most traders never stay long enough to realise it.
The Question Most Traders Never Ask
Now ask yourself this:
What if the first four trades lose?
Same system.
Same probabilities.
Same edge.
But the trader is now:
• Down −4 units
• Questioning the rules
• Adjusting stops
• Skipping signals
• Or quitting entirely
The maths didn’t fail.
The trader gave up before the odds could work.
This Is Why Most Traders Quit
Most traders don’t quit because their system is bad.
They quit because:
• The payoff structure is wrong
• Drawdown tolerance wasn’t planned
• The odds weren’t understood
• The emotional cost wasn’t calculated
They expected to feel good early —
instead of survive long enough to win.
Professional Traders Think Differently
Professionals don’t ask:
“Will this next trade win?”
They ask:
“Can this system survive 20 trades without me interfering?”
They design systems where:
• Losses are acceptable
• Drawdowns are planned
• Confidence is preserved
• Edge compounds quietly
Because they understand one critical truth:
Trading is decided before you click Buy.
The Real Lesson
If you don’t know:
• Your expected win rate
• Your average win size
• Your average loss size
• Your worst-case drawdown
Then you are not trading.
You are hoping.
And hope has no place in a professional system.
Final Thought
Professional traders don’t trade to win today.
They trade structures that can survive tomorrow.
Before you place your next trade, ask yourself one question:
Do I know the odds — or am I guessing?
Monday Notes is part of our ongoing commitment to helping traders move away from guesswork and toward structured, system-based trading.
Every note is designed to focus on:
• Understanding market structure
• Thinking in probabilities, not predictions
• Building systems that can survive real-world conditions
If this note made you think differently about trading, that’s the point.
— The SystemsTraders Team
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